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The Empire State Building retrofit project is reaching for rarefied air: improved energy efficiency,  reduced carbon emissions, and rapid and healthy return on investment.  Recent case study documentation for the project suggests this project will hit the ball out of the bark on all fronts.  Highlights include:

An estimated 38% energy savings compared to high level class A office space

A 3.1 year payback on the incremental cost increase to fund proposed energy efficiency measures

• An 9.2% estimated tenant space savings when increased project costs are weighed against the net present value of energy savings to tenant space fit-outs
• Reduction of well over 100,000 tons of CO2 emissions over 15 years

This project concept directly touches on the concepts of energy efficiency, performance and return on investment that formed the backbone of the recent Trends in Building Green seminar we discussed here.  The Empire State Building project also serves as not only a model, but a potential market game changer and advances many of our predictions for this next building cycle.

On a personal note, I spend a lot of work time looking "green" issues from a contracts, client or risk management perspective.  I spent a lot of personal time thinking about sustainability for its own sake in the context of raising a family and working towards a sustainable future economically and environmentally.  I like environmental sustainability for its own sake, but I love when creative and motivated people fuse the moral high ground with economic success.

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The Trends in Building Green panel last Thursday morning was a great success.  There were a couple interesting take-aways from the panel's materials and presentations:

• Smart property owners need to be taking energy savings seriously; Tommy Russo, Chief Technology Officer of Akridge, described their highly detailed efforts to analyze and implement projects with a reasonable return of investment horizon;
• Per Tom Mawson, Executive Director of the USGBC National Capital Region Chapter, the "USGBC is all about market transformation"
• Bobby Christian, CEO of Green 20 Now, LLC, and Mike Scelzi, President of Net Metering, Inc. demonstrated just how far we have come with access to energy metering information, and its implications on operations and cost savings
• Chris Pyke, Director of Research for USGBC, provided a wonderful overview of where LEED has been and where it may be going, in particular in the context of on-going performance of buildings and where those measures may not match design.  For Chris and USGBC, the question primary question: "Is there a commitment to demonstrated performance ... which is leadership" with regards to energy efficiency and sustainability.
• I covered some of the press crititiques of LEED, what the actual projects demonstrated, and finally where the performance debate may create significant liability issues in the future

My presentation is here for those who are interested.  Mike Scelzi was also kind to provide his presntation as well.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or are interested in tracking down some of the participants or issues we covered.

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I am pleased to invite everyone to attend the upcoming Trends in Building Green Seminar on January 21, 2010. 

Date:       January 21, 2010

Time:       9:00 am - 12:00 pm (breakfast 8:30 am)

Location: National Rural Electric Cooperative Ass'n

                  4301 Wilson Blvd., Arlington VA 22203

A full listing of speakers and information is available, but the main topic is on green buildings and energy.  I will be speaking on some of the historical energy related issues with LEED structures, the attention they have received, and what this may translate to in the future both for LEED and liability exposure;  these topics have received a lot of interest and commentary generally, and we have also commented on them frequently here.

Anyone interested in attending should RSVP to Nancy Shipley of Rutherfoord by Tuesday, January, 19 at 703-813-6575, or nancy.shipley@rutherfoord.com.

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As we kick off 2010, it is a good time to make some predictions on the future of green building. While these predictions anticipate a longer time horizon than just the coming year, my bet is we will see some of these trends manifest during 2010. We can also expect that some of these topics will be the subject of a lot of discussion here and elsewhere over the coming year.

1. The marketplace will demand green buildings as the baseline building product. This is particularly true in markets that show signs of economic vitality where construction, redevelopment, or renovation are most likely to occur. (See for example the recent AGC article  highlighted by our friend Chris Hill).
2. Newly built buildings which are not designed and built using sustainable practices will struggle in the marketplace.
3. The marketplace will continue to struggle independently evaluating green building information and concepts. As such, rating systems such as LEED will continue to hold significant focus in the sustainability conversation for some time.
4. Energy efficiency will receive increased attention as the most important yardstick in measuring the sustainability of specific structures. (Here is an example of the discussion regarding the LEED energy debate).
5. The anticipated ASHRAE green code and other code based alternatives will gain traction in comparison to LEED ratings with respect to energy efficiency (see also Chris Cheatham’s recent post on local energy regulation and energy labeling).  LEED will continue to have a significant place for overall evaluation of projects; however, LEED will need to respond to energy performance concerns or risk losing attention to evaluations methods which are more focused on actual energy performance.
6. Longer term investment strategies in commercial property are more in vogue leading to owners who are more interested in operational expenses. Look for increases in renovations of existing buildings focusing on improvements to energy efficiency of older buildings.
7. Governmental bodies will continue to drive sustainable building as a prerequisite both through their own acquisitions and regulations. This trend will further fuel the feedback loop of the marketplace demanding green buildings.
8. Look for continued tension with regards to bonding requirements of green buildings, particularly where specific green performance bonds are required (such as DC’s bond requirement which takes effect in 2012, discussed by Kevin Kaiser at Best Practices Construction Law).

Do you think these are likely to happen?  Did I miss any other big ones?  We are interested in your thoughts, please comment!

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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mark Twain, paraphrasing Benjamin Disraeli

We have a new and very interesting recent report on green building to examine, the Regional Green Building Case Study Project: A post-occupancy study of LEED projects in Illinois. The Illinois report studied a mix of projects of various certifications levels, certified under various versions of LEED, with various applications, that used various baselines, and that used various reporting methods for utilities. The small sample and disparate projects involved lends itself towards a scattershot of data.

The study found a range of cost premiums for green construction (after grants and incentives) at 0.6% to 6.9% of project cost with 3.8% increase as the mean. The Illinois report found that projects focusing on energy efficiency tended to have better energy efficiency (quite a V-8 moment I am sure). Interestingly, the Illinois report found no meaningful correlation between the level of LEED certification and the energy performance of the buildings involved … this may be an off-shoot of the limited sample size.

The most interesting point from the Illinois study was in the details regarding energy modeling. Sixteen projects used energy design models. Of these sixteen projects, twelve projects performed worse than design models … six of them using 100% to a whopping 250% more energy than anticipated in the model. Seventeen projects used at least baseline models and remarkably seven of the projects showed actual energy use above the baseline!

To me, to have energy use of these structures exceed the original baseline is flat out staggering. Looking into the project details, one big factor was more intensive use and occupancy figures than modeled. This continues to point out the flaw of expecting too much from energy modeling that we have previously discussed. In addition, we continue to see the problem of trying to draw averages from lumping apples and oranges together. As someone recently said in a meeting on green building, drawing statistically across these projects appears far less educational and valid than more in-depth case study analysis of the specific individual projects.

(Hat tip to our friend Heidi Schwartz for commenting on this and sending us the report)
 

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We have previously discussed the New York Times article criticizing the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating systems developed by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) for its arguable lack of translation to improved energy efficiency.  We also discussed energy codes and their interplay with LEED and ongoing reporting.  More recently, similar concerns were raised with respect to performance of LEED certified buildings at Dartmouth College (hat tip to Rich Cartlidge who wrote a nice piece on this topic with an ensuing series of good comments). Stephen Del Percio of Green Real Estate Law Journal has similarly analyzed the 2007 reports from the University of Massachusetts that found various LEED certified buildings used significantly more energy than anticipated under applicable modeling used for the LEED certification process.

In the midst of all this discussion of failed energy performance of LEED buildings, it makes sense to take statistical note of the changes from LEED 2.2 for New Construction to LEED 3.0 for New Construction. These changes appear to reflect an awareness and understanding that energy efficiency is critical to not only measuring the true sustainability of a LEED certified project, but also is key to USGBC and LEED maintaining credibility. A simple numerical comparison of LEED 2.2 and LEED 3.0 reveals a change in focus:

The relative redistribution of credits has resulted in a greater number of points allocated towards carbon footprint, efficient water and energy usage and the provision of alternative transportation options for workforces. A greater importance is placed on sustainable sites, water efficiency and energy and atmosphere. A greater number of points are now focused on sustainable sites credit two, development density and community connectivity and credit four, alternative transportation. While the methodology for compliance with these credits remains largely the same, the increased number of points available for them is evidence of growing relative importance.

For water efficiency, a new prerequisite requires each LEED project to reduce water use by at least 20 percent. Under LEED NC 2.2, a 20 percent reduction would have earned a credit point.  The threshold for attaining credit three, water use reduction, has increased by 10 percent compared to the previous version.

In energy and atmosphere, the points allocated to credit one, optimize energy performance, expanded from a maximum of 10 points to a maximum of 19 points. Similarly, the available points available for the remaining credits have been increased. The relative percentage weighted similarly demonstrates a shift in focus to increase the emphasis on energy efficiency:

It is clear from the above, plus the previously reported requirements for energy reporting as part of minimum project requirements, that the USGBC was already moving towards an increased focus on the need for energy efficiency improvements as part of LEED. It remains to be seen whether these efforts will succeed or whether LEED has suffered on-going credibility damage as its certification plan comes under the spotlight of scientific and journalistic scrutiny.

As a LEED AP and human being, I am all in favor of a relevant and successful program that makes a difference. As a construction litigator and business attorney, I am concerned that the LEED structure will start (or has started) to suffer from the natural human temptation towards self-perpetuation and amalgamation of resources, influence and power. In both capacities and finally as a blogger, I am not sure it is entirely fair to pile on LEED on the energy question in particular given the statistical demonstration that USGBC is trying to shift increased focus towards energy efficiency and energy reporting. It seems to me the discussion should be about how to improve energy efficiency and energy modeling accuracy rather than trying to discredit LEED.

Editorial Note: This article is adapted in part from a recent article titled "Shades of Green".  This article was co-authored by me and Ela Kapusta, LEED AP. This article is made available as a reprinting from Commonwealth Contractor, September 2009, a publication of the Associated Builders and Contractors - Virginia Chapter (all rights reserved). 

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The recent New York Times piece criticizing LEED (discussed previously) has reignited discussion of the potential for decertification after initial issuance of LEED certification. Some previously pointed to the USGBC addition of extended energy reporting for five years after occupancy as a "Minimum Performance Requirement" and the threat of decertification as an enforcement mechanism.  More recently, commentators have predicted recertification programs.  Rich Cartlidge even called for a wedding between LEED for New Construction and LEED for Existing Buildings.

The USGBC changes must be viewed against the backdrop of the development of international, state and local building codes and even Congressional legislation.  Codified efficiency standards would clearly and immediately raise the minimum energy bar across the board and reduce or eliminate some of the arguments raised by the Times article.  Reducing compliance to clear codes may also reduce in part the increasingly complex interface between local authorities interpreting prescriptive codes and the interpretive voluntary third party organization subject to little if any legal challenge or appeal (commented on previously by Chris Hill).   LEED as a voluntary tool has succeeded in driving the dialogue and advancing knowledge of green building.  LEED as a remotely delegated code interpretative structure with limited avenues of legal challenge is far more complicated.

With regards to code based approaches to energy efficiency, at least one local energy code has been passed and partially tested ... and stopped dead in its tracks (at least temporarily). The City of Albuquerque passed its own building code with energy efficiency standards. In granting a preliminary injunction blocking application of the code, a federal district court judge made the preliminary finding that it was more likely than not the challenger would prevail based on an argument that Congress had spoken on energy efficiency and that the federal statutes preempted state or local action.

The City of Albuquerque case reached the preliminary finding of federal preemption despite the fact that when Congress passed its energy efficiency measures, it included an express limited caveat that excluded building codes from preemption. The case is still pending, so the ultimate result is up in the air. The case does, however, offer a roadmap to those seeking to challenge statewide and local building code efforts to impose energy efficiency standards.

Given these complexities, it may be simpler for proponents of increased efficiency to do so at the federal level. The Waxman-Markley bill (described as the cap and trade bill by some, by others as The Illiad) includes significant increases in required energy efficiency requirements. While these standards have received extensive attention and commentary from green building bloggers, the press and public discussion of these aspects of the bill have been almost strangely silent.

The interplay of these issues raise a number of questions, particularly if proponents are successful at incorporating energy efficiency standards into federal or state statutes:

• If LEED in fact incorporates recertification and/or on-going performance requirements, will it reach the tipping point where owners and end-users push back on fees and process?
• What is LEED's role in the future if green requirements are increasingly codified? Does LEED always impose higher requirements? Does it stick to a holistic approach and avoid "energy myopia" as coined by Shari Shapiro?
• If/when statutory framework for sustainable development emerges in earnest, will the position of pre-eminence of LEED erode? Is the USGBC's ultimate mission of "working to make green building available to everyone within a generation" furthered more by advancing legal codification or increasing the reach and depth of its current market penetration?

These are the Ghosts of LEED Present.  Next time we will discuss in greater detail the thicket of legal risk and defense issues posed by extended reporting requirements, decertification and recertification, including statutes of limitations and shared/murky issues of risk and responsibility.
 

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